Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 75984.023938 80291.475079 84601.888157 89235.766563 94073.300129 98971.278815 104302.146586
2025-03-16 68352.803582 74894.960243 81630.078152 89072.211621 97055.124872 105351.079984 114614.132297
2025-03-23 63994.371553 72137.684334 80708.272338 90380.648525 100972.116399 112196.615783 124970.421867
2025-03-30 60388.242680 69718.977019 79722.574453 91211.852195 104008.251396 117787.890054 133712.933258
2025-04-06 57002.770573 67221.778174 78358.282350 91346.952307 106028.701489 122058.406796 140830.453761
2025-04-13 54001.461547 64925.145526 77007.459855 91295.860204 107661.774523 125751.057567 147184.152210
2025-04-20 52200.213515 63854.375286 76916.235526 92553.871068 110675.071077 130921.086003 155155.228960
2025-04-27 50596.272042 62898.330509 76856.811538 93758.555777 113555.442743 135892.251653 162878.132204
2025-05-04 48821.666951 61638.424903 76352.827010 94363.254173 115673.615653 139941.942373 169517.564334
2025-05-11 46895.237401 60102.113082 75437.846009 94404.922548 117066.246670 143102.248729 175095.548218
2025-05-18 45243.799164 58819.871127 74755.309018 94658.423306 118656.095650 146456.487063 180882.163495
2025-05-25 43665.379811 57557.572094 74034.623983 94808.968922 120076.546999 149579.526489 186381.614167
2025-06-01 42737.954752 57077.449260 74253.091234 96100.994627 122892.406451 154405.483466 193983.250855
2025-06-08 41108.436008 55661.504648 73273.480354 95884.498610 123848.143834 156991.314655 198909.466691
2025-06-15 40363.276738 55328.198538 73605.610205 97264.229427 126743.883141 161918.819856 206681.586575
2025-06-22 39431.883630 54717.608538 73558.037534 98144.403371 129007.812950 166077.411571 213537.174882
2025-06-29 38215.666358 53694.762610 72951.068445 98287.356935 130330.237371 169071.971277 218973.385114
2025-07-06 36979.219374 52602.407800 72216.577726 98233.052872 131377.575733 171711.144699 223969.868672
2025-07-13 36424.541877 52384.032989 72583.439881 99567.894317 134167.362028 176510.803292 231657.036698
2025-07-20 35876.970609 52152.491232 72915.505783 100845.977022 136882.471857 181227.043792 239267.280483
2025-07-27 35089.632166 51571.901991 72769.650255 101487.450155 138775.525147 184916.084675 245611.508410
2025-08-03 34093.968444 50677.927878 72184.298106 101531.650788 139884.107606 187610.523213 250712.805685
2025-08-10 33235.180752 49944.004097 71786.552574 101800.553607 141267.771447 190647.193520 256252.975725